The final result for this year is still to come but both the optimistic and pessimistic estimates are below the long-term average of 268 mill. hl from 2010 -2022.
Too much wine: years of surplus (in mill. hl)
For years now, global wine production has exceeded consumption. Especially after vintages like 2018, the difference is significant.
Northern Hemisphere* vs. Southern Hemisphere
Depending on the vintage, the northern hemisphere produces almost four times as much wine as the southern half of the world. In absolute terms, in the South, volumes are subject to smaller fluctuations.
“Further declines in consumption are to be expected."
Overall, one can see that in the three major wine-growing countries of the EU - due to the heat and very low rainfall during the growing period – there were considerable fluctuations in harvest quantities. Yields in the southern hemisphere were generally high however.
Several factors contribute to the current surplus. Firstly, there was the extraordinarily high harvest volume in 2018, then the pandemic with its restrictions for on-trade consumption and travel. Globally, the decline in China’s wine consumption also plays a decisive role: since 2017, consumption has been declining at a double-digit rate. Another contributing factor is the current alcohol policy, especially in the EU, so further declines in consumption are to be expected. Lastly, there is changing consumer behaviour, with young people in particular, drinking less wine - either because they are switching to alternative alcoholic beverages or because they are not drinking alcohol at all.
